Government expenditure in India: Composition, cyclicality and multipliers

Abstract

We first assess the fiscal space and cyclicality of total Indian Central Government expenditure and its major components. Next we estimate multipliers for total, capital, and revenue expenditure. We extend the Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) to include supply shocks and the monetary policy response sequentially and together. The long-run capex multiplier is much larger than the revex. Capex also reduces inflation more over the long-term. Despite this, capex is more volatile. Monetary policy accommodates capex and tightens in response to revex, but absence of active accommodation during supply shocks reduces the capex multiplier. Implications follow for fiscal-monetary coordination.