Sustainable energy security for India: An Assessment of energy demand and sub-system

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of Sustainable Energy Security (SES) of the energy demand sub-system for India by calculating a SES index. The demand sub-system has been evaluated for four dimensions of SES, viz., Availability, Affordability, Efficiency and (Environmental) Acceptability using selected metrics. A hierarchical structure has been used to construct indices using 'scores' (objective values of selected metrics), and 'weights' (subjective values, representing importance of each metric) which are then aggregated, to obtain a SES Index. Various sectors of the energy demand sub-system are evaluated and dimensional and sectoral indices are calculated for the years 2002, 2007 and 2012. Assessment of the obtained energy indices is undertaken and the results reveal that all (except one) sectoral indices have shown an increase during the period of assessment. The results show that from 2002 to 2012 the aggregate SES Index has increased by approximately 10% which indicates a gradual improvementin the sustainability and security of the energy demand sub-system.However, the SES index is approximately 0.7 (short of the desired target of 1.0), which implies that there is still a large scope for improvement in the performance of the India's energy demand sub-system. A sensitivity analysis of various indices reveals that the SES index is relatively robust to variation in weights allotted to different dimensions and hence provides a reliable assessment of the SES of the demand sub-system.